good news?

This is surprising

As it stands now, high-ranking Democratic officials tell the Huffington Post that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Cali.) is just a handful of votes short ("two at best," said one lawmaker) of the majority needed to pass the Senate bill alone.

I am pretty skeptical about this claim. While I think that health care has a pretty good chance of passing, I have seen nothing to indicate that they are this close to having the votes. Obviously Pelosi and "high-ranking Democratic officials" have more insight as to which of the 20 odd undecided (there's also a useful whip count by David Dayan here) members can be assuaged by provisions in a reconciliation bill.

I expect we'll start to see some real movement after the reconciliation bill is drafted and released: all the 'undecideds' looking for cover for a no vote will quickly declare that they can't support it, all the 'undecideds' looking for cover for a yes vote (I'm not sure if there even are any of these) will quickly say that this solves their major concerns, and while not perfect is enough to get their vote.

This will leave us with the genuinely undecided and the genuine-Stupak folks (I can't imagine that there will be an abortion provision in the reconciliation bill, although i could see one in a follow-up sidecar bill). The genuinely undecided will look to see whether their concerns were addressed while at the same time see how it is playing out in their districts. I expect up to a week of continued indecision for these folks. The genuine-Stupak folks will continue to follow the Stupak-leadership negotiations. All in all I could see the leadership having a really good sense that they had nearly all the votes about a week or maybe even a few days after the reconciliation bill is released. But now? While everyone is still maximizing their leverage and all the fake undecideds have not yet been able to scramble for cover? That I doubt.

So why say it? Well given that it comes from "high-ranking Democratic officials" I suspect it's straight spin. Spin with a purpose, but spin nonetheless. Momentum counts for a lot right now. I think that a lot of Dems want this to pass. But they don't want the fallout if it does and they were the ones who put it over the top. No one wants to be the 215th voter if it fails, or the 217th voter if it passes. So if you think the leadership is getting close but doesn't have it, you might be more likely to stay undecided. If you thought it was certain to die, you'd help kill it. If you thought it was certain to pass, you could rest easy. Its when you think that you will be needed, that you stay pat. But what does it say if the leadership right now is trying to get people to keep saying they're undecided. Does it mean that they see momentum going against them, and can't afford to lose anymore votes?