who to watch

Update: Kaptur is a yes.  This good news, however, is tempered by the fact that Loretta Sanchez, a former yes who wasn't on most lists of undecided dems has gone AWOL. Missing votes only help the dems if they were otherwise going to vote no, and then you would need two missing to get it down to 215 votes. 


Kaptur's decision apparently comes after the Stupak bloc met with the White House and Secretary Sebelius and got assurances that there would be some effort to ensure that existing abortion law is maintained. That will likely be in the form of an executive order applying the Hyde Amendment to the exchanges, which pretty much all sides in the abortion debate say they want. I will write later on why I think that Stupak and the Catholic Bishops knew that the Senate bill didn't change existing law of no federal funding for abortions, and were pressing for a much greater change to abortion coverage than they were admitting. But for now the big question becomes "whether this means more members of the Stupak coalition will follow suit. By some estimates a half dozen of them are still undecided, so if they break towards Yes, it could put House Dem vote counters over the top."

If you are watching the vote today, then which legislators should you be watching for?

I've found the NY Times graphic to be helpful, even if there are better and more up-to-date whip counts out there.

As of 10am this morning, it listed the Dems as needing 9 votes. Word is though that Henry Cuellar is a yes, so I take him out of the tally and list the Dems as needing 8 votes.


My sense of who to watch will be:
1) Brian Baird (He was a No last time, but he is a necessary get for the leadership)
2) Kathy Dahlkemper (possible Stupak-bloc)
3) Daniel Lipinski (almost certain Stupak-bloc... I would put him as a likely no, but if they got him then I suspect that there wouldn't be much cohesion left in the Stupak group)
4) Marcy Kaptur (Again, a Stupakite, but one that has been heavily courted by the leadership, with extended meetings by Pelosi throughout the last two days)


These won't get them to 216. But if they can't peel off some of the Stupak group then they won't be able to get there, and if they can't get Baird (who has no excuse to vote no) then that suggests that the leadership's strong-arm isn't up to the task. 


Additionally, I'm not at all convinced that Lynch will vote against it. He would get the firedoglake-left support for being an opponent from the left, but he would almost certainly lose his leadership position as a floor whip (unless Pelosi has the votes and is giving him a pass--and it would be pretty shocking if Pelosi were giving the leadership a pass) and probably lead to coldness if not direct opposition from unions.